{"registration":{"version":"ELDER-management-v1","registered_at_utc":"2026-10-30T06:45:06.647Z","policy_sha256":"41c64b83e29183e4d76750d7bb40dfa230f6c341486bd29f347f413dfbba0948","baseline_study_sha256":"d501ca2581867dcd3f3b3574c48b7ca30c9577916665f27604b5058504dc9cb9","statement":"Registered before any management-v1 calculation. Baseline fixed-exit results already known."},"policy":{"version":"ELDER-management-v1","purpose":"One predeclared operationalization of Elder's 1993 Triple Screen trade-management principles, not a claim of an exact universal Elder system.","reference":"Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living (1993), section 43, Stop-Loss. Initial protective stop, break-even, protection of approximately half paper profits, exit on major trend reversal. Numeric 1R/2R thresholds, close-only updates and H1 reference below are our assumptions.","source_url":"https://paperzz.com/doc/9056332/elder-alexander---trading-for-a-living","known_before_registration":"The fixed-exit full-history results have already been viewed. This registration predates the first management-v1 computation only. This is not a virgin holdout or an out-of-sample profitability test.","entry":"Reuse every triggered TS-event-study-v1 event, exact time, side and modeled fill, unchanged. No new entry filtering. Default first candidate of each episode, all hourly candidates available as sensitivity. Independent possibly overlapping event studies; no pyramiding or account simulation.","stop_buffer_price_units":10,"initial_stop":"Long: previous fully closed signal H1 BID low minus 10 integer price units (1 pip). Short: signal H1 ASK high plus 10. Never use the eventual low/high of the activation hour to set the initial stop: that would see the future. This prior-bar H1 rule is an adaptation of the book's day/previous-day extreme rule.","risk":"R is direction*(actual_fill-initial_stop) in integer price units; strictly positive. It includes entry spread/gap-open effects, excludes hypothetical extra cost. Fixed-exit outcomes use this same initial R as normalization only, without imposing a stop.","breakeven_r":1,"trail_start_r":2,"trail_fraction":0.5,"updates":"After surviving each eligible H1, including activation H1, use exit-side CLOSE only. Best favorable close since entry >=1R: stop at entry price. Best >=2R: protect 50% of that best close profit. Never loosen stop; long levels round down and short levels round up to integer price units. Changes effective at NEXT eligible H1, never retroactive within the bar. Entry-price break-even is before additional costs.","exit":"Stop active immediately after entry. Long stop checks BID low, short checks ASK high. Later-bar opening beyond stop fills at the adverse exit-side OPEN; otherwise at stop. No TP, scale-out, arbitrary holding-time cap or forced fixed-horizon exit.","trend_exit":"At each surviving H1 close use the latest closed D1 MACD histogram slope. Strictly opposite slope schedules a market exit at the next eligible H1 exit-side OPEN; neutral slope does not exit. At that open, a crossed protective stop takes precedence. A gap/quarantine before execution censors the outcome. Closed market periods are skipped.","activation_ambiguity":"If an intrabar entry (not filled at opening) and initial stop are both touched in the activation H1, assume entry then stop, fill at initial stop and flag ambiguous_entry_stop=true. No fictitious open-gap exit before entry. Main table keeps this conservative convention; a predeclared sensitivity excludes flagged events from ALL four strategies on the same cohort. If entry is at opening, stop sequence is known; stop at opening uses exit-side open if already crossed.","censoring":"Any ineligible H1 before exit: data_gap. Missing remaining history: end_of_data. Missing/invalid D1 slope after a surviving bar: indicator_gap. Never replace unknown exits with zero or force liquidation at last observed price. An outcome closed before later missing data stays scored. Exit event reports bar bounds; exact intrabar timestamp is unknown.","comparison":"Primary comparison: intersection of events scored by management and all original 1/4/24-H1 exits. Report identical N, mean/median net pips, positive fraction, mean net R, mean bars observed through exit, paired mean difference to each fixed horizon. Separately report each strategy's scorable N and every censor reason; do not silently select only winners or only management-closed events.","costs":"Use historical BID/ASK. Same user-selected hypothetical round-trip pip cost for all four exits (default 1 pip); subtract once per outcome. It is not an actual broker tariff or duration-aware swap model. Expose holding duration, including calendar time. Gaps may lose more than 1R. No leverage, position sizing, drawdown or account-return claim.","no_tuning":"Implement these constants once; no grid search, optimization, winner-based parameter selection or changes after inspecting management results. Future rule changes require a new version/registration and explicit disclosure. Preserve baseline study.json byte-for-byte for the 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